The selective Spanish closed flat in a session without major events. It has already accumulated five of seven positive sessions since the beginning of the year, with a cumulative return of more than 3%. Optimism about the new trade negotiations between the US and China has slowed down in the absence of concrete measures.
Despite the mood with which the markets have started the year, we continue with the same catalysts with which we finalized the last course. The trade war continues to erode the economy and the agreement for the Brexit remains stagnant. Trump continues to press the Democratic Party with the partial closure of the government to approve financing to build the wall, while increasing fears of an economic slowdown in the short term.
The dollar continues to shoot up and is approaching 1.16 against the dollar due to the Federal Reserve's prudence on interest rate hikes during 2019. In the last few months it has gone from discounting four increases for this year to only two. Meanwhile, oil suffered the first fall of the year after a revaluation of more than 15% driven by the optimism of the stock markets.
Joaquín Robles, analyst at XTB