Airef predicts a fall in the Spanish economy in summer after knowing the employment data for August

The pulse of the Spanish economy is weakening earlier than expected. The advanced activity indicator of the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (Airef), which is updated as new official figures appear, already indicates that the GDP could fall by 0.4% in the third quarter of the year after incorporating to the indicator the unemployment and affiliation data released yesterday by the Government. This latest update of the Airef indicator, the Mipred, also cuts the growth rate of the Spanish economy to 3.2% from the 4.5% that the indicators placed it at in the middle of last July. That level is where the experts place the inertial growth of the economy and, therefore, the threshold below which the economy would have regressed in 2022. The trickle of official economic indicators in recent weeks, which includes the sales of the large companies, imports of goods, electricity consumption and Social Security affiliation, have been showing a more somber aspect of economic activity and have led the activity indicator for the third quarter to negative territories. The data incorporated by Airef into its indicator still offers a partial vision of reality. To date, 57% of the indicators corresponding to the month of July have been included, 28% of the data for August and no data for September. Analysts consulted by ABC, however, stress that although the information offered by the indicator is still very partial, the fact that we already have employment data for the months of July and August begins to give a very close picture of what is happening in the economy during the summer quarter. The stoppage of the economy is ahead And what they show is disturbing. The virtual data on the growth rate of the economy during the summer prepared by Airef has fallen into negative territory since the first official activity figure for the month was released. And since then he has not left there. The trend shown by the Fiscal Authority indicator suggests that this decline in the economy could occur sooner than expected, already in the third quarter, which would deteriorate growth forecasts for the end of the year. To date, the official forecast of the Government, of a growth of 4.2%, is in line with those of analysts, according to the latest Funcas consensus data from last July. However, the latest updates that have been released have revised the growth forecasts for this year downwards. MORE INFORMATION Spain lost 20 million affiliates at the end of August after destroying 270,000 jobs in a single day Economists predict that Spain will enter a recession next winter The General Council of Economists last Tuesday left its growth forecast at 3.9 % and joined the group of analysis institutes that have lowered their forecasts below 4%.

Source link