The Independent Authority of Fiscal Responsibility (Airef) foresees that the Spanish population could reach 60 million people by 2050, thanks to a boost from immigration and, to a lesser extent, from the promotion of births.
According to the report "Demographic forecasts: an integrated vision", the projections of the Airef contemplate that the Spanish population will increase between 4 and 13 million in the next 30 years, to be between 51 and 60 million in 2050, well above the projections made by Eurostat (49 million) and INE (44 million).
The bulk of the discrepancies is found in the population of working age, since, while the Airef predicts that people between the ages of 16 and 66 will be at a similar age to the current one, the INE and Eurostat foresee a contraction between 5 and 7 million people respectively.
This demographic cut, says the Airef, would lead to the "Japaneseization" of the economy, that is, a passive acceptance of the demographic challenge where neither the entry of immigrants nor policies of activation of fertility have a place.
By contrast, the forecasts of the Airef go through a net flow of immigrants of 250,000 people between 2018 and 2050 and an increase in the number of children per woman, from the current 1.36 to reach 2 at the end of the period.
Regarding the dependency rate, the Airef considers that it could double from the current 25% to reach 60% in 2050, due to the progressive aging of the population, in line with the estimates of the INE and Eurostat, which will exert increasing pressure on public spending associated with aging.