AIReF calculates that the economy will fall 11.7% this year if there is a regrowth

The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) calculates that the Spanish economy could contract this year up to 11.7% if the coronavirus epidemic evolves adversely and forces the population to be confined again in the autumn.

The president of AIReF, Cristina Herrero, presented this Wednesday in a telematic meeting with the media the report of the institution on the Update of the Stability Program 2020-2021 sent last week by the Government to Brussels.

This report includes its own projections, which in a lower impact scenario, where the confinement ends on May 15 and activity recovers gradually, would mean a contraction of GDP of 8.9% this year and a fall in equivalent employment. Full-time 9.7%, while the public deficit would skyrocket to 10.9% of GDP and debt to 115% of GDP.

A more pessimistic scenario, in which a resurgence of the virus forces the population to be confined for a month in the fall, would bring the fall in GDP to 11.7% and the loss of employment to 12.9%, while the deficit would reach to 13.8% of GDP and indebtedness, to 122% of GDP.

In both cases, the recovery would come in 2021, with an increase in GDP of 4.6% in the optimistic scenario and 5.8% in the pessimistic scenario and an improvement in employment of 2.6% and 3.1%, respectively.

The public deficit would be between 7.5% and 9.4% of GDP in 2021, depending on the different scenarios and the public debt, between 117% and 124%.