The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences will announce on Monday the winner of the award officially recognized as Nobel for Economics, the 'Award for Economic Sciences of the Bank of Sweden in memory of Alfred Nobel', where for the second time a Spanish professor, Manuel Arellano, find among the favorite candidates.
Clarivate Analytics from Thomson Reuters has given its forecast of Nobel Prize winners, the list of 'Laureates by Mentions' of 2018, among which is the Spanish economist Manuel Arellano, the second Spanish to appear on this list in the 16 years has been publishing.
Arellano, professor of econometrics at the Center for Monetary and Financial Studies (CEMFI) in Madrid, together with Stephen R. Bond, of the University of Oxford, in the United Kingdom, is included in the list for his contributions to the analysis of panel data. , especially the Arellano-Bond estimator.
This method studied by Arellano exploits the time patterns in the panel data to estimate the economic response to a change in a policy or other variable, while controlling the permanent non-observed variation of confusion.
Against the Spanish economist, Wesley M. Cohen, of Duke University, and Daniel A. Levinthal, of the University of Pennsylvania, compete for their introduction and development of the concept of 'absorption capacity' –the capacity of companies to evaluate , assimilate and apply external knowledge – and its contribution to advance in the understanding of the innovative performance of companies, industries and nations.
The third favorite, who would be a solo laureate on this occasion, is David M. Kreps of Stanford University, for his contribution to dynamic economic phenomena, in the theory of choice, finance, game theory and theory. of the organization.
MALE AND ADVANCED AGE: THE WINNING PROFILE
This award, which was awarded for the first time in 1969 and celebrates 50 editions this year, presents a very homogeneous profile of the laureate: male, American and with a long professional career, since the average age of the winners is 67 years.
In fact, the profile of the average winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics would be one male – only one woman, Elinor Ostrom, has won the prize among a total of 79 winners – of US nationality, 57% of the winners' passport.
Regarding the extensive experience, the average age of the winners is 67 years, with Kenneth J. Arrow the youngest, awarded in 1972 at 51, and Leonid Hurwicz the oldest, after receiving the award at 90 years in 2007.
Less marked is the tendency that gives greater weight to the shared prizes on the individual ones, since from its first edition in 1969 the Nobel Prize for Economics has been awarded to a single winner on 23 occasions, such as last year 2017, when the economist won American Richard H. Thaler.
Since its creation, the Nobel Prize for Economics has recognized renowned figures such as Friedman, Hayek, Samuelson and Stiglitz, among others. To date, only one woman, the American Elinor Ostrom, has been distinguished with this award, which she won in 2009 along with her compatriot Oliver E. Williamson for her work in economic governance.