May 31, 2020

a scenario for the return of bipartisanship

The emptied Spain is filled with expectation in electoral time. A total of 26 provinces with two, three, four and five seats at stake can become on November 10 the most propitious scenario for the return of the two-party PSOE and PP thanks to the likely fall of Cs.

It is understandable that socialists and popular people intend to take the flow of votes that Albert Rivera's formation will lose, according to the polls published to date. If averages and percentages are analyzed, the 10N can give citizens a hard blow.

The emptied Spain represents a third of the seats of the Congress, 350 in total. The 101 deputies in Liza come from the two that Soria gives, the three from Ávila, Cuenca, Guadalajara, Huesca, Palencia, Segovia, Teruel and Zamora; and the four that come from Albacete, Álava, Burgos, Cáceres, León, Lleida, Lugo, Ourense, La Rioja and Salamanca.

These districts include those that distribute five seats: Cantabria, Castellón, Ciudad Real, Huelva, Jaén, Navarra and Valladolid.

A geographical look, therefore, focuses on inland and unpopulated Spain and on coastal areas with an interior also emptied. It is a vast fragment of the country already mentioned by all the electoral programs of the parties.

The elections of April 28 meant, here, an incontestable triumph of the PSOE, because it achieved 42 seats, very far from the 26 of the PP, the 19 of Cs (in both cases without counting the coalition of Navarra Sum) or the 4 of United We can. The formation of Pablo Iglesias practically disappeared from the emptied Spain and Vox barely scratched a couple of deputies.

The irruption of Albert Rivera's party was surprising: he won a seat in Albacete, Ávila, Burgos, Guadalajara, Huesca, León, Cáceres, Palencia, La Rioja, Salamanca, Segovia, Teruel and Zamora; and also in Cantabria, Castellón, Ciudad Real, Huelva, Jaén and Valladolid.

In many of these provinces the percentage of votes needed to take a seat was low, taking into account the averages that have required such constituencies: 17 percent in Cáceres or about 16 in Palencia, to name two examples. Consequences of fragmentation, in this case of the center right space.

As Efe remembers the professor of the Complutense University and electoral expert, Rafael Rubio, in the elections of April they lowered the traditional averages to drag the last deputy of those who were at stake.

For this reason, among others, the analyst of the 40dB demographic company Pablo Arnaldos, after looking at the dynamics of the published surveys, predicts a blow to Cs on November 10, since, if it continues moving in a percentage of votes to national scale of 12 percent, could lose in Spain emptied a fortnight of the deputies moored.

The transfer would arrive almost completely to the PP, great benefit of the drift of the "orange" formation.

Now, Arnaldos points out, if Rivera and his party begin to recover these weeks and raise expectations to 14 percent of the vote, the fall would soften considerably.

The president of Gad3, Narciso Michavila, certifies to Efe the relevance that in the 10N can reach the emptied Spain, where, he points out, reside "most of the seats at stake".

Although he perceives that the changes take place "within the same ideological blocks" (from Cs to PP, for example), the expert predicts that the PSOE, in this depopulated Spain, will be the winner, although with "a significant recovery" of the populars.

Conclusion: "The return to bipartisanship is greater in the provinces with fewer seats," he says.

Rafael Rubio recalls the precedent of the electoral repetition of June 2016, when "the vote was concentrated, in general, in ideological terms and not in the old-new axis," he describes.

Three years ago, regarding the December 2015 elections, he stressed that the PP improved in 14 seats in the less populated provinces, while the PSOE lost 5. The bipartisanship differential (+9) overlapped the " new matches ", Cs and Podemos, (differential of -5).

This expert has counted the provinces in which there were changes in the allocation of votes between December 2015 and June 2016. In the 14 in which movements were registered, only Jaén, Lleida, Ourense, Salamanca and Guadalajara were of those of five or Fewer seats to distribute. In three, Ourense, Salamanca and Lleida, bipartisanship was favored.

His verdict: "The provinces of Spain emptied proportionally change the distribution of seats less than the most populated provinces, but when this occurs they are more conducive to the seat from the new forces to bipartisanship."

Angel A. Giménez

. (tagsToTranslate) Spain (t) emptied (t) stage (t) lap (t) bipartisanship

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