In 15 years, one in four people will be 65 or older in Spain, according to the population projections of the National Institute of Statistics (INE) published this Wednesday. In 2033 the Spanish population will rise to 49 million: there will be 2.4 million more than now. This increase is motivated, fundamentally, by the calculations of increased migration in the coming years. The increase in the largest population would thus be six percentage points.
INE projections on population and households are made with the expectation that the current trends in fertility, mortality and migration will be maintained, precisely this is the most difficult to measure. The increase in the population will be the result, mainly, of a positive migratory balance from 2018 to 2033, enough to compensate the negative vegetative balance: in the projected 15 years there will continue to be more deaths than births.
Births will continue to decrease until 2022, so the trend that began in 2009 will continue. Until 2013, only 5.7 million children will be born, 15.8% less than in the previous 15 years. The INE points out, however, that from 2023 there will be a slight upturn due to the arrival at the higher fertility ages of more numerous generations, in particular, those born from the second half of the nineties. In 2033, 403,718 children will be born, according to these calculations, 3.5% more than this year. Women will have an average of 1.41 children, compared to the current 1.31. The average age at which women will be mothers remains stable at around 32 years.
In 2033, life expectancy will be 82.9 years for men and 87.7 years for women, that is, 2.5 and 1.9 years more than now. However, despite dying later, deaths will continue to increase throughout the projected period due to the aging of the population. Between 2018 and 2032 more than 6.5 million people will die, almost 15% more than in the previous 15 years.
The INE calculates that, if during the 15 years of projection the observed trend continues, Spain would obtain a net gain of population due to migrations of almost 3.4 million people until 2033. According to the provisional data of the Migration Statistics of In 2017, 532,482 people arrived from abroad, compared to the 367,878 that left the country. These figures consolidate the positive migratory balance abroad registered in 2016, after six years in negative.
Regarding the number of households, if current trends were maintained, they would grow by almost 1.8 million in the coming years. Of the 20.3 million that will be in 2033, according to these projections, 28.9% of the total will be unipersonal. That is, within 15 years almost one in three people will live alone: almost six million people. This figure represents an increase of 24.7% compared to the beginning of 2018.