The Bank of Spain calculates that in the event of a Brexit without agreement and disorderly could subtract to the Spanish economy more than 9,000 million euros in five years, this is something more than 8 tenths of a percentage of GDP.
The entity has published this Tuesday the document "Brexit: balance of situation and perspectives", in which it explains that the reduction in the level of employment would be similar, with cumulative losses of up to 0.8 percentage points in five years.
The report states that 70% of the total impact on the Spanish economy would correspond to the direct consequences on bilateral trade with the United Kingdom, while the rest would be explained by the effect of Brexit on the rest of Spain's trading partners, within the European Union (EU).
In terms of the components of the gross domestic product (GDP), the greatest impact would be for the advance of exports, which could subtract around 2.65 percentage points.
Imports would also be significantly reduced (1.78 points) by the reduction in demand by the United Kingdom and, to a lesser extent, by the appreciation of the euro.
Within national demand, the effect on investment could be substantial (1.15 points less), while it would be more moderate in the case of consumption (0.4 points less).
In an alternative scenario of Brexit without agreement, but with an orderly exit (trade relations according to the rules of the World Trade Organization), the Bank of Spain calculates that GDP growth and employment would be reduced by up to 5 tenths after five years.
Exports would subtract 1.62 points; imports 1.09 points; the investment 0.7 points; and consumption 0.24 points.
In a third scenario of Brexit with trade agreement the Spanish economy would hardly suffer, since GDP and employment would only subtract 0.02 points in the following five years; exports 0.09 points; imports 0.08 points; the investment 0.04 points; and consumption 0.01 points.
The Bank of Spain considers that these results suggest thatThe costs for the Spanish economy derived from Brexit could be significant, depending on the scenario that finally materializes, but "probably not excessive".
The entity warns that the results should be taken with caution because the assumptions of departure have been taken from a previous study of the Bank of England, in which there are very uncertain elements such as the reaction of the exchange rate of the pound and that does not incorporate the contingency measures that have been adopted by the governments of the countries of the EU.
In another section of the report, it is noted that Spanish companies that trade with the United Kingdom are comparatively larger and more productive than those that export to other countries, which could help cushion the potential negative impact of Brexit.