2019: change of perspective

2019: change of perspective


I do not agree with the maxim that runs like gunpowder in the financial world that the best of 2018 it's already over. I think it is a consequence of not understanding how investments should be considered. Of course, the year that ends today has been unfortunate for the financial markets and has given rise to many grandiloquent headlines, especially lately. The worst December of the last hundred years. The biggest drop since I do not know what year. No asset in positive, circumstance that was not given for …

However, this approach does nothing butsee the short-sightedness that we have when it comes to investing. A year in the financial markets is nothing. It does not mean anything. And it should not matter at all. It is understandable that cuts are proposed for natural years; however, it betrays how badly we propose investments.

And it's not because of what happened in the last twelve months. In fact, it is something that we have been talking about on this page practically every week. The conclusion would be that I do not share the generalized madness in which we are immersed and, although annoyed, I'm not worried.

However, I think that regardless of what the behavior of the various assets in 2018, the best education that we should take is that it is only a flying goal, and the investment does not go flying goals. This is a long run and getting tangled up in the short term makes us lose the perspective necessary to make the right decisions.

2019 will be whatever. I would like the sanity to return and that a good part of the value that exists in the Spanish Stock Exchange should emerge. But, really, if it were not like that, it does not matter. Happy New Year.

Vox and the unexpected

The irruption of Vox in the political scene has reached the market: some renowned economic analysts have come to anticipate the disaster before their possible arrival at the institutions. Without entering the political reading -doctor has the Church-, from the economic point of view and its eventual influence in the markets, the economic program of the party led by Santiago Abascal it's not a risk, quite the opposite. And more if we take into account the real weight that is going to have in the decision-making process.

The reading that the markets should have done, and that at some point they will do, is that the result of the Andalusian elections seems to anticipate an eventual political turnaround at all levels of the Spanish Administration, according to those who know about this. This scenario is, without a doubt, very positive for the economy and for the markets.

The possibility of center-right governments in autonomous communities, large municipalities and, when it touches, in the central government it is a much better situation than we have now. So, in a more or less near future we could see economic policies of something more liberal cut, concerted to all levels of the Administration, which is not only good, but also unexpected.

In any case, and independently of what ends up happening and what are the resulting policies, the current situation does not have very good sale in the market, although not yet it has happened invoice: a socialist government without clear course, mortgaged by the extreme left and independentistas.

Of course these famous economists can do politics, just missing. But maybe they should keep the forms and avoid falling into a demagogic analysis of a big brush that only questions their criteria.



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